pet peeves

...no, actually I find this kinda endearing. When he did this when we were in our 20's and said, "take my picture." I just didn't get it (guyness was more of a mystery then) but when he still keeps doing it almost 30 years later how can I not at least try harder to look impressed? Clearly from his fashion sense it's not a vanity thing.

No, today's pet peeve is more of a statistics and probability thing. First there was the hurricane forecasts where they kept saying things like we were "overdue" for a big one. And now there is this plague-y movie saying basically the same thing for a really scary epidemic. Please understand that I am not saying the big plague, or the big hurricane aren't about to hit. But, unless we are talking earthquakes where no activity means a build up of pressure, in the land of probability a lack of events mean the missing events (probably) aren't that likely. As my advisor once said if the no. 22 (for example, I'm not picking on the number 22) ping pong ball isn't selected for a long run a true statistician doesn't think it has to come up next he* thinks someone swiped the no. 22.
The mechanisms for the next big plague sound plausible enough and many people much smarter and probably tenured think it's coming but what I still don't get is why they don't pay any attention to the fact it hasn't happened yet. I'm sure it's not because that doesn't sound nearly as important to fund and would make a movie even duller than today's blog.
Which reminds me seizures seem to be more like earthquakes than ping pong balls in lottery baskets and Caleb is about due. Shunt failures are somewhere in between ( a long spel of working means...it's working (see what I mean, no plot) but an even longer period could mean some wear and tear. I'm thinking we are in a sweet spot right now and it would be a good time to make travel plans.
If you read through this... thanks.

*the girl statisticians aren't playing the lottery